Agnieszka Lipińska, head of the Disinformation Analysis Center at NASK, Poland’s national cybersecurity and research institute, told PAP that the second half of 2025 saw a sharper rise in false and misleading claims than the first, largely around narratives linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
She said outside actors, including Russian and Belarusian centers, sought to influence public opinion in countries supporting Ukraine through cyber warfare operations that included disinformation.
One prominent wave followed reports that drones violated Polish airspace during a Russian strike on Ukraine in September. A widely shared claim argued that Gerbera-type drones found hundreds of kilometers from the Polish-Ukrainian border could not have come from Russia because their range was said to be around 500 kilometers.
That line was used to suggest, without evidence, that Ukraine was trying to draw Poland into the war.
Mariusz Cielma, editor-in-chief of the monthly magazine Nowa Technika Wojskowa, told PAP that while the drone’s nominal range is around 600 kilometers, simple modifications can extend it significantly.
He said images and prosecutors’ information indicated the drones found in Poland did not carry warheads or reconnaissance equipment, reducing weight and increasing range. Cielma said Russia has at times replaced a roughly 5-kilogram warhead with additional fuel tanks, including improvised solutions, to allow longer flights.
In November, disinformation activity intensified after two railway sabotage incidents. In one case, an explosive device damaged the track, raising the risk of a derailment. In another, a train carrying 475 passengers had to brake suddenly because of damage to the line.
Online narratives sought to shift blame onto Ukraine and discredit Polish security services, including claims that the national railway operator PKP had been warned in advance and that Ukrainian services were behind the attacks.
Another strand promoted the idea that "partisans in Poland" were targeting rail routes to disrupt military supplies and signal opposition to Poland’s Western alliances.
Jakub Olchowski, from a research team on propaganda and disinformation at Maria Curie-Skłodowska University (UMCS) and the Institute of Central Europe in Lublin, eastern Poland, told PAP that such stories fit Russian and Belarusian narratives portraying Poles as tired of Ukraine and critical of their own authorities.
He said the framing was quickly amplified by various groups, including the far-right Confederation party.
The third wave was tied to Poland’s 2025 presidential election.
A PAP report published in April, a month before the vote, warned that the Kremlin had an interest in destabilizing democratic processes by backing specific candidates and fueling disinformation.
Government efforts under the “Election Umbrella” program included monitoring through Arakis-Gov, an early warning system for online threats, and the work of CSIRT NASK, the incident response team at NASK.
Officials reported large numbers of cyber threat alerts, as well as false SMS campaigns and reported breaches of Poland’s election silence rules.
They also said thousands of fake social media accounts were neutralized, including profiles which were impersonating candidates.
Even so, a June poll cited by PAP found that 40.1 percent of adult Poles believed the presidential election may have been rigged, while an August Pew Research Center report stated that 85 percent of Poles saw disinformation as a greater threat than terrorism or disease, placing Poland among the highest of 25 countries surveyed.
A fourth wave focused on energy, with officials warning that false claims can undermine public trust and complicate the country’s energy transition.
Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said in October that in the first half of 2025 up to 5 million users may have encountered untrue information about the energy sector.
Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka said nuclear power, renewable energy, and alleged health effects of power grids were frequent targets.
A fifth wave centered on migrants, particularly Ukrainians living in Poland, with repeated claims spread over months rather than a single spike.
The General Staff of of the Polish Armed Forces warned in October of an “intensive Russian cognitive operation” aimed at damaging emotional ties between Poles and Ukrainians and stoking anti-Ukrainian sentiment, citing online hate, cyberattacks, arson and GPS signal disruptions as part of a broader pattern.
Lipińska also pointed to a sixth wave in health-related disinformation, linked to debates over health education in schools and vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV).
She said medical disinformation often rises in late winter and in autumn, in line with seasonal vaccination cycles.
Asked about likely developments in 2026, Lipińska said the scale of fake news and disinformation campaigns could grow if the European Union’s Digital Services Act is not effectively implemented, and the major internet platforms do not strengthen moderation.
She also warned about an increase in artificial intelligence-generated fake content, as exemplified by recent TikTok videos in which AI-generated representations of attractive young women make anti-EU pronouncements.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP